Canada’s electricity sector will get even greener – NEB

Alberta, Saskatchewan generate most electricity from coal, natural gas

The National Energy Board’s latest report, Energy Futures 2017, projects considerable changes to the electricity capacity mix, primarily for non-hydro renewables and natural gas, according to a press release.

Canada had just under 147 gigawatts (GW) of installed electricity generation capacity in 2016.

Of this capacity, 55 per cent was hydro. The remaining capacity was made up by natural gas, nuclear (uranium), coal, oil and coke, and non-hydro renewables such as wind, solar and biomass.

Hydro is projected to remain the dominant source of electricity supply in Canada, making up 48 per cent of total capacity in 2040.

A report by the International Energy Agency in July marked the first time ever that international investment in electricity surpassed oil and gas.

The biggest projected changes in Canada’s electricity mix are a reduction of coal capacity from 7 per cent to 1 per cent, and growth in wind capacity from 8 per cent to 14 per cent between 2016 and 2040.

Solar capacity is projected to increase from less than 2 per cent to almost 5 per cent, and biomass capacity is projected to remain stable at about 2 per cent.

Hydro’s decline from about 55 per cent of capacity to 48 per cent is due to this faster growth in other forms of generation, such as wind and natural gas-fired generation.

In terms of other non-renewable sources, natural gas’ share of capacity is projected to grow from 15 per cent to 22 per cent.

Nuclear (uranium) is projected to decrease from 10 per cent to 6 per cent. Lastly, oil capacity is projected to decline from 3 per cent to 2 per cent.

 

At the provincial level, electricity capacity mixes vary considerably. For example, Quebec, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and Yukon have most of their electricity supplied from hydroelectric resources.

In contrast, Alberta and Saskatchewan generate most of their electricity from coal and natural gas.