Canada expects decline in fossil fuels consumption starting in 2020

Fossil fuels projections Source: National Energy Board

By 2040 wind capacity is projected to double and solar capacity to triple

The NEB projects that Canada will soon begin decreasing its use of fossil fuels. The NEB has been estimating energy supply and demand for 50 years, and the use of fossil fuels has always been expected to keep increasing.

The NEB’s most-recent report, Canada’s Energy Future 2017: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 (EF2017), projects Canadian fossil fuel consumption will peak in 2019.

After that, fossil fuel use is expected to decline gradually in the Reference Case. This is mainly due to lower use of coal and refined petroleum products in Canada.

Fossil fuel use is expected to decrease for many reasons. New technology and recent emissions policies are key.

The Pan-Canadian approach to pricing carbon pollution provides an incentive to reduce demand for fossil fuels.

In the transportation sector, green house gas emission standards for vehicles produced after 2018 results in lower gasoline and diesel demand growth.

The number of electric vehicles will increase due to policy incentives, especially in Quebec and Ontario.

This will reduce the need for gasoline in passenger vehicles. In the oil production sector, the steam to oil ratio for in-situ oil sands production improves more quickly than in previous EF projections.

This reduces demand for natural gas to produce steam for oil extraction. This change is partly due to the use of steam-solvent technology for in situ recovery.

The electricity sector is phasing-out coal fired generation; by 2040 wind capacity is projected to double and solar capacity to triple. Also, lower estimates for economic and population growth lead to lower fossil fuel demand.