American shale oil output forecast to fall by record amount in May – EIA

Drop of 114,000 b/d to 4.84 million b/d will be record oil production decline

The 21-month long oil price decline is having a bigger than expected effect on American shale oil production, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

shale

Precision Drilling Facebook photo by Adam Denne.

Output is dropping for the seventh month in a row, 114,000 barrels per day to 4.84 million b/d, says the EIA’s drilling productivity report.

The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for seven key regions.

EIA’s approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells produce both.

While shale resources and production are found in many U.S. regions, at this time EIA is focusing on the seven most prolific areas, which are located in the Lower 48 states.

These seven regions accounted for 92 per cent of domestic oil production growth and all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-14.

New-well oil production per rig b/d     New-well gas production per rig
(thousand cubic feet/day)

Region April 2016 May 2016 change April 2016 May 2016 change
Bakken 757 767 10 957 966 9
Eagle Ford 840 852 12 2,829 2,838 9
Haynesville 27 27 5,406 5,476 70
Marcellus 65 65 10,851 10,987 136
Niobrara 863 885 22 2,544 2,609 65
Permian 458 468 10 838 846 8
Utica 319 331 12 7,036 7,115 79
Rig-weighted average 541 532 (9) 2,690 2,836 146

Oil production                                                                    Gas Production
thousand b/d                                                                       million cubic feet/day

Region April 2016 May 2016 change April 2016 May 2016 change
Bakken 1,078 1,047 (31) 1,633 1,601 (32)
Eagle Ford 1,246 1,184 (62) 6,405 6,192 (213)
Haynesville 48 47 (1) 6,099 6,036 (63)
Marcellus 41 41 17,337 17,277 (60)
Niobrara 420 404 (16) 4,217 4,134 (83)
Permian 2,036 2,032 (4) 7,064 7,023 (41)
Utica 81 81 3,665 3,666 1
Total 4,950 4,836 (114) 46,420 45,929 (491)

 

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