By August 17, 2017 Read More →

Global automakers shifting to high efficiency gasoline engines, diesel to be phased out by 2020

diesel

Diesel semi truck

Advancements in electronic controls, real-time sensing, actuation systems are enhancing thermodynamic efficiency of ICE vehicles

A new report from Navigant Research analyzed the market for technologies that improve the energy efficiency of light duty vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) and low voltage electrified propulsion, providing global market forecasts through 2026.

Automakers and suppliers around the world are faced with the challenge of meeting increasingly aggressive regulatory mandates to improve fuel efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

While electric propulsion addresses both issues, consumer acceptance, cost, and infrastructure support remain challenges to mass adoption in the near to mid-term.

“In many markets and for many applications, ICE vehicles remain the preferred choice in terms of acquisition cost, convenience, and capability,” says Sam Abuelsamid, senior research analyst at Navigant Research.

Advancements in electronic controls, real-time sensing, and actuation systems are enabling continuing enhancements to the thermodynamic efficiency of the ICE.

“However, concerns about diesel emissions and threats to ban diesel from many urban areas are expected to encourage manufacturers to focus on more efficient gasoline models, causing diesel volumes to plateau in the early 2020s,” said Abuelsamid.

Stricter emissions and fuel efficiency laws are driving the shift to more efficient ICE development, says transportation analyst Chris Robinson of Lux Research.

Automakers clearly recognize that electric vehicles are an important part of future business, but EVs alone can’t meet fleet-wide emissions targets in the near to medium-term.

“The internal combustion engine is only one part of that puzzle. Efficiency engines paired with 48 volt mild hybrid systems are the most cost-effective methods to reach emissions and efficiency targets,” Robinson said in an interview.

According to the Navigant report, engine right-sizing, improved drivelines (more transmission ratios and reduced friction), mass reduction, and aerodynamics are also providing low cost gains.

The reportAutomotive Fuel Efficiency Strategies, examines the market for technologies to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles with ICEs and low voltage electrified propulsion, with a focus on engine technologies and materials.

The study provides an analysis of how these technologies are likely to be adopted based on cost and effectiveness and how they will affect OEMs, hardware and software suppliers, and policymakers.

Global market forecasts of adoption for a range of efficiency improving technologies for light duty vehicles, segmented by region, extend through 2026.

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