Podcast: Interview with David Coletto re. Canadian voter intentions poll (hint…we hate Trump)

Federal Liberals hold comfortable lead, most Canadians approve of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Last week Abacus Data released a public opinion poll about how Canadians feel about the national political parties and how they would vote if an election was held today. I interviewed Abacus Data CEO David Coletto about the results and he offered a few insights that didn’t make it into this poll analysis, including a not very surprising reason why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to hold healthy approval ratings.

You can listen to the podcast interview here.

The Abacus poll shows that the Liberal Party enjoys 43% support, compared to 31% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP. These numbers are in line with Abacus results from July.

On a regional basis, the Liberals have an 23-point lead in Ontario, a 22-point lead in Quebec, and an 18-point lead in BC.

The Liberals have a 12-point lead among men, and an 11-point lead among women.

The Liberals have a substantial lead among all age groups except voters 45-59, where they are effectively tied with the Conservatives.

Among self-described left of centre voters, the Liberals have 56% support, compared to 24% for the NDP.

Among voters who consider themselves centrists, the Liberal Party has 43% support, compared to 29% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP.

Among voters on the right, the Conservatives have 66% support, compared to 22% for the Liberals.

The Liberal Party lead is built in part on the fact that 47% say they approve of the job the government is doing, compared to 30% who disapprove. This rating has hovered around the 50% mark since the end of 2016.

Approval is the plurality view across all age groups, and in every region except the Prairies. Perhaps most important to the Liberal fortunes is the fact that by a margin of 47% to 24%, those who voted NDP in the last election approve of the job the Trudeau government is doing.

Views on the economy

More than two out of three (69%) say they feel the economy is growing today, the highest number Abacus has seen in several years.

A majority in every region, says the economy is growing rather than shrinking, led by particularly positive sentiments in BC (72% growing) Ontario (72% growing) and Quebec (77% growing). In Alberta, where the economy suffered downward pressure due to declining oil prices, Abacus now sees a majority (51% growing/46% shrinking) seeing growth in the economy.

Among different partisans, Liberal voters are most likely to say the economy is growing (84%) but 69% of NDP voters and 58% of Conservative voters also feel that way.

Party leaders

When it comes to views of Prime Minister Trudeau, 47% say they have a positive opinion, compared to 28% who have a negative opinion. These numbers are slightly improved from those we saw as the House of Commons recessed.

For Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, 19% say they have a positive opinion, compared to 18% who have a negative opinion. These numbers are not that dissimilar to those found for Rona Ambrose.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 1,512 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 1 to 3, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,514 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.