Battery electric expected to be best-selling type of electric powertrain for the bus through 2026, report finds
BOULDER, Colo – A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the global market for medium and heavy duty electric drive buses, offering an assessment across hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell technologies, with forecasts for annual sales, segmented by region and powertrain type, through 2026.
As governments worldwide implement legislation to improve overall vehicle efficiency and reduce emissions, managers of medium and heavy duty bus fleets are looking toward advances in hybrid and electric powertrains to comply and reduce operating costs.
“Electric drive buses of all types are expected to see steady sales growth over the next decade, driven by clean air legislation and government incentives,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research.
After years of testing, solid performance data is available, making fleet managers more confident in the long-term performance of the technology and more comfortable with its return on investment.
“The global market is dominated by the rapid growth of battery electric bus sales in China thanks to recent changes in incentives, while hybrid drive is growing strongly in other markets,” said Alexander.
As battery cell costs decline following strong growth in the consumer electric vehicle market, the battery electric is expected to be the best-selling type of electric powertrain for buses through 2026, according to the report.
Meanwhile, hybrid drive sales are anticipated to grow steadily, fuel cells are expected to enter series production by 2026, and plug-in hybrid drive is expected to get more popular for the rest of the current decade before sales start to decline.