The US will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicles
The latest forecast from IHS Automotive calls for sales of nearly 21 million autonomous vehicles by 2035.
It’s a substantial increase from previous estimates, influenced by recent research and development by automotive OEMs, supplier and technology companies who are investing in this area.
“Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025,” said Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. and director of research at IHS Automotive.
The US will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicles, while Japan will simultaneously ramp up industry coordination and investment ahead of the Summer Olympics in Tokyo in 2020.
“Our new forecast reflects a 43 per cent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets,” he said.
New mobility solutions such as ride sharing and car sharing programs, increasing investment in autonomy by OEMs, suppliers and technology companies alike, research and development centers underway and improved efficiency are expected to impact the adoption of automotive technologies.
”Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role,” said Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst at IHS Automotive.
“IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”
The U.S. market is expected to see the earliest deployment of autonomous vehicles as it works through challenges posed by regulation, liability and consumer acceptance.
Deployment in the U.S. will begin with several thousand autonomous vehicles in 2020, which will grow to nearly 4.5 million vehicles by 2035.
Regulatory environment, cybersecurity and software are key development influencers
The analysis indicates that continued challenges include potential technology risks for software reliability and cybersecurity, though both of these are showing improvements as technology evolves and the industry recognizes the threat.
In addition, the implementation of local and federal guidelines and regulatory standards, as well as a legal framework for self-driving cars, continue to prove challenging.
Various states and regions have taken appropriate measures to begin to develop these frameworks, while others are still crafting their approach.