Report estimates 1.2 million electric vehicles could be on Canadian roads by 2030
Last year, the federal government announced it would develop a policy that aims to cut more carbon pollution than any other in the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, by promoting the production and use of cleaner fuels in vehicles, buildings and industry, according to a press release.
Working with Navius Research, Clean Energy Canada designed a version of the Clean Fuel Standard in line with the federal government’s plans for the policy.
By 2030, Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard is expected to reduce carbon pollution by 30 million tonnes—equal to taking more than seven million cars off the road.
The Clean Fuel Standard lets companies decide what method of lowering their carbon intensity is most cost effective
for them. It also lets them trade credits with other companies.
Compared to more prescriptive regulations, the standard can offer lower-cost reductions. If designed properly, it can be almost as cost-effective as carbon pricing while applied to specific sectors.
The policy would increase economic activity in clean fuels in Canada by up to $5.6 billion a year in 2030. It would also create up to 31,000 jobs for the skilled workers needed to build, operate and supply new clean fuel facilities, and double the number of biofuel plants across the country.
Jeremy Moorhouse, a senior analyst at Clean Energy Canada, believes the gas price at the pump will likely be 1.5 cents per litre higher in 2025 and five cents per litre higher in 2030 than it would be without the clean fuel standard, according to the National Post.
The standard can cut carbon pollution by 30 Mt CO2eq on top of what other policies in the pan-Canadian framework would achieve, according to the report.
To get these results, the report recommends Environment and Climate Change Canada establish specific requirements.
“Meeting the fuel standard would double biofuel production in Canada, Moorhouse said, largely through ethanol and biodiesel, which can be blended with gasoline and diesel. “We think those are probably the most cost-competitive right now,” he said, according to a story in the National Post.
For the transportation sector, the report recommends a mandate a 10 per cent reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 from 2015 levels. The transportation sector should be partitioned from buildings and industry.
The report estimates 1.2 million electric vehicles would be on the road by 2030 with the Clean Fuel standard in place.
For buildings and industry, the report recommends implementing either a 3.5 per cent reduction requirement in carbon intensity over that same period, or a 5 per cent renewable natural gas mandate by 2030.
“Our goal was to determine what this policy would mean for Canadians. What we found is that a well-designed Clean Fuel Standard—informed by experience with similar policies in California and B.C.—would not only help Canada cut pollution in keeping with our commitment under the Paris Agreement, it would create jobs in Canada’s clean fuel sector and grow a new segment of our economy,” said Moorhouse.
The Clean Fuel Standard is, in short, a powerful and proven policy.